Catch Up #1 - The Die Offs Begin -

This interchange with visitors to the forests is common:

Q: Do you think that the forests will eventually be influenced by climate change?

A: It seems that they already are being influenced and have been for some time, but it is impossible to know for certain...

Q: When did you first notice changes that might be related?

A:  Well, let me explain......

When we first purchased 200 acres of forest that our forest adjoined on three sides from our neighbor in 2015, all areas of the forest appeared to be vigorous and healthy.  Nearly all of the land reflected the prior owner’s priorities and assumptions.  As dairy farmers with forested uplands, they followed the most common approach of growing even-aged, single species crops of Douglas fir, with the intension to cut and replant every forty to sixty years.  This approach is most common throughout our Oregon Coast Range because it makes the most rational, economic sense – in the short run.  Across the fence line on the rest of our forest we instead choose to grow a forest of multiple ages and a mix of native species and grow for vitality as opposed to a crop rotation.  We do this for many reasons, the most important of which is to build forest resilience and reduce our vulnerability to various stressors and risks.

Within a year of the transfer of ownership, we noticed changes.  Initially we were troubled to see thinning and fading of needles in thirty-year-old fir plantations.  Within two years, over eighty percent of the trees were dead in an area extending over thirty acres.  While being saddened by the rapid change, we knew that the relentless pressure of the twin invasives of Himalayan black berry and scotch broom meant that taking a “just let nature take its course” was not a viable option.  We acted in three ways.  First, we took steps to analyze and understand what had caused the rapid die off.  Secondly, we salvage logged a large percentage of the wood.   And finally, we looked for who might be willing and able to join us as partners in shaping the area’s next chapter.

We went into the analysis with two assumptions.  The first was the hypothesis that two factors might play a role.  Perhaps the trees came from seedstock that was not suitable for the site?  Perhaps the young trees died due to environmental factors such as soil types, temperature and moisture levels?  Though we can’t rule out the seedstock possibility, we now feel that the key driver was shallow soils over clay, due to historic landslides, leading to poor drainage, leading to poor root development which led to the tree’s inability to survive the abnormally high summer temperatures in the summers of 2015 and 2016.  Secondarily, the weakened trees were vulnerable to and impacted by Black stain root disease.

With the goal of reestablishing forests stands that will be resilient, healthy and productive into the future, we were most fortunate to build an excellent relationship with Tualatin Soil and Water Conservation District.  Thanks to District investment and the leadership of Mike Conroy and others, where we once faced a wall of dead firs, we now have a young, diverse forest of oak, pine, maple, ash, cedar – and fir – beginning to grow.   It’s clear that this case is part of a larger pattern happening all around the “bathtub ring” where forested uplands meet the Willamette Valley lowlands and where fir plantations were established on sites that are marginal for their survival.  Can we say definitively that “this die off was caused by climate change”?  While, no, we don’t feel that it’s responsible to make that claim, it does appear that the forces that drove dramatic change in our forest, high temperatures leading to water stress, are indicative of what we’re told we should anticipate in the future.

Now, as we watch the new, young, diverse forest begin to grow, we keep a close eye on the many acres of fir plantation nearby, planted on marginal soils, elsewhere in the forest – and around the region – wondering “what next?”.   The choice to plant these monocultures was not ours, but they create inherited vulnerabilities and risk which are now our problem to work with.